Public Transport Gains Ground in National Climate Plans
As the world looks ahead to COP30 in Belém, new analysis from UITP reveals a major shift: public transport is finally taking centre stage in national climate strategies. But while recognition of its role in cutting emissions is growing fast, the money and long-term plans needed to make it happen are still catching up.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – countries’ self-defined and increasingly ambitious plans, updated every five years, to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement – are evolving.
UITP’s review of 67 updated NDCs finds that three-quarters now feature public transport measures, up from two-thirds in the previous round. This progress is being driven largely by low- and middle-income countries, where climate, mobility, and development priorities increasingly overlap.
Encouragingly, half of the new NDCs now include specific public transport sector targets, compared to just 20% previously, with most plans stretching to around 2035, though few extend beyond 2040 – leaving long-term certainty for investors and operators in question.
From Broad Goals to Detailed Policies
Countries are becoming more specific about how they will deliver low-carbon public transport. Over 60% of NDCs include commitments to electrify public transport fleets, while nearly one-third aim to shift commuters from private cars to buses, metros, and trams.
Increasingly, governments are linking these two strategies — combining electrification and mode shift for the most cost-effective route to decarbonising daily travel.
Beyond technology, many countries are adopting more holistic measures: improving urban planning, managing transport demand, and fostering collaboration between agencies and the private sector. This a shift from purely “technical” fixes toward a balanced “avoid–shift–improve” approach – one that integrates infrastructure, planning, and behaviour change.
The Missing Piece: Finance
While ambition is on the rise, funding remains the Achilles’ heel. Nearly two-thirds of NDCs fail to specify any financial budgets for public transport measures, making it difficult to link plans with international climate finance mechanisms like those under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
Without clear funding strategies – especially to attract private and climate investments – many commitments risk staying on paper. Stable, transparent financing frameworks are crucial to move from policy promises to real-world projects.
Aligning Climate and Development Goals
Another promising trend: more NDCs now explicitly reference the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 7 (Clean Energy).
This integration underscores how better mobility can deliver not just cleaner air, but fairer access to jobs, education, and opportunities — a win-win for both people and the planet.
Looking Ahead to COP30
UITP’s findings arrive as the Brazilian COP30 Presidency prepares its Action Agenda, designed to scale up climate solutions across key economic sectors.
Public transport will play a starring role through UITP’s efforts to support actions on financing, capacity building, and national policy. This alignment between NDC commitments and rules which governs how countries finance, cooperate, and trade emissions reductions under the Paris Agreement will be a key focus in Belém.
International climate market mechanisms have the potential to be a game changer for the public transport sector and have already supported the deployment of electric buses in Bangkok, illustrating how global climate frameworks agreed at COPs can directly accelerate the transition to cleaner, more efficient mobility.
It will be critical that rules established at COP30 and beyond properly reflect the specific needs of the public transport sector, as this can help de-risk investments and unlock additional climate finance.
The message is clear: public transport is finally being recognised as a critical climate solution – but now it must be backed by strong investment, governance, and delivery. The next phase for the climate talks will determine whether today’s ambitious words translate into more buses, trains, trams and metros that move millions while protecting the planet.
